This is a compilation of data from the 2021 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREAS OF CANADA (NPP2020CMA) produced by the demography department at Statistics Canada. In addition, the headship rate by age group of primary household maintainer from Census 2016 was applied to obtain household projections.
Below are three tabs, each contains information regarding different population projection scenarios produced by Statistics Canada. Contained in the write up on each tab is a description of how the scenario is derived from assumptions about the Components of Population Growth. Please take the time to understand the diffent assumptions for each scenario.
Each tab also contains several sub-tabs that display either charts or provide tables. All data is exportable to excel or .csv for use in other analysis.
The High Growth (HG) and Low Growth (LG) scenarios have the same interprovincial and intraprovincial migration assumptions as the M1 scenario. However, there are differences in other assumptions as summarised in the below table.
High and Low Growth Scenario Assumptions
| Scenario | Fertility | Morality | Immigration | Emigration | NPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Growth | high | low | high | low | high |
| Low Growth | low | high | low | high | low |
| M1 | medium | medium | medium | medium | medium |
The Fast Aging (FA) and Slow Aging (LG) scenarios have the same interprovincial and intraprovincial migration assumptions as the M1 scenario. However, there are differences in other assumptions as summarised in the below table.
High and Low Growth Scenario Assumptions
| Scenario | Fertility | Morality | Immigration | Emigration | NPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast Aging | low | low | low | high | low |
| M1 | medium | medium | medium | medium | medium |
| Slow Aging | high | high | high | low | high |
The medium scenarios primarily differ in the assumptions made about interprovincial migration. The difference from one Medium scenario to another is based on the choice of reference years when deciding the flows of future interprovincial migration. The average level of a particular time window is used.
That said, small changes in the base population due to different interprovincial migration will compound over time because the fertility and mortality rates are applied to the base population in each time frame (which includes the differences in interprovincial migrants).
The following table gives us the reference years:
| Scenario | Interprovincial Ref Year |
|---|---|
| M1 | 1991/1992 to 2016/2017 |
| M2 | 1995/1996 to 2010/2011 |
| M3 | 2003/2004 to 2008/2009 |
| M4 | 2009/2010 to 2016/2017 |
| M5 | 2014/2015 to 2016/2017 |
| M6 | 2016/2017 to 2018/2019 |