Calgary

This is a compilation of data from the 2021 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREAS OF CANADA (NPP2020CMA) produced by the demography department at Statistics Canada. In addition, the headship rate by age group of primary household maintainer from Census 2016 was applied to obtain household projections.

Below are three tabs, each contains information regarding different population projection scenarios produced by Statistics Canada. Contained in the write up on each tab is a description of how the scenario is derived from assumptions about the Components of Population Growth. Please take the time to understand the diffent assumptions for each scenario.

Each tab also contains several sub-tabs that display either charts or provide tables. All data is exportable to excel or .csv for use in other analysis.

High and Low Growth

The High Growth (HG) and Low Growth (LG) scenarios have the same interprovincial and intraprovincial migration assumptions as the M1 scenario. However, there are differences in other assumptions as summarised in the below table.

High and Low Growth Scenario Assumptions

Scenario Fertility Morality Immigration Emigration NPR
High Growth high low high low high
Low Growth low high low high low
M1 medium medium medium medium medium

Population Charts

Total Pop

Pop by Age

Household Charts

Total Households

Households by Age Group

Assumption Charts

Total Component

International Migration

Interprovincial Migration

Intraprovincial Migration

Non Permanent Residents

Tables

High Growth Tables

Population by Age
Total Pop
Household by Age Group
Total Households

Low Growth Tables

Population by Age
Total Pop
Household by Age Group
Total Households

Fast and Slow Aging

The Fast Aging (FA) and Slow Aging (LG) scenarios have the same interprovincial and intraprovincial migration assumptions as the M1 scenario. However, there are differences in other assumptions as summarised in the below table.

High and Low Growth Scenario Assumptions

Scenario Fertility Morality Immigration Emigration NPR
Fast Aging low low low high low
M1 medium medium medium medium medium
Slow Aging high high high low high

Population Charts

Total Pop

Pop by Age

Household Charts

Total Households

Households by Age Group

Assumption Charts

Total Component

International Migration

Interprovincial Migration

Intraprovincial Migration

Non Permanent Residents

Tables

Slow Aging Tables

Population by Age
Total Pop
Household by Age Group
Total Households

Fast Aging Tables

Population by Age
Total Pop
Household by Age Group
Total Households

Medium Scenarios

The medium scenarios primarily differ in the assumptions made about interprovincial migration. The difference from one Medium scenario to another is based on the choice of reference years when deciding the flows of future interprovincial migration. The average level of a particular time window is used.

That said, small changes in the base population due to different interprovincial migration will compound over time because the fertility and mortality rates are applied to the base population in each time frame (which includes the differences in interprovincial migrants).

The following table gives us the reference years:

Scenario Interprovincial Ref Year
M1 1991/1992 to 2016/2017
M2 1995/1996 to 2010/2011
M3 2003/2004 to 2008/2009
M4 2009/2010 to 2016/2017
M5 2014/2015 to 2016/2017
M6 2016/2017 to 2018/2019

Population Charts

Total Pop

Pop by Age

Household Charts

Total Households

Households by Age Group

Assumption Charts

Total Component

International Migrants

Interprovincial Migrants

Intraprovincial Migrants

Non Permanent Residents

Tables

M1 Tables

Population by Age
Total Pop
Household by Age Group
Total Households

M2 Tables

Population by Age
Total Pop
Household by Age Group
Total Households

M3 Tables

Population by Age
Total Pop
Household by Age Group
Total Households

M4 Tables

Population by Age
Total Pop
Household by Age Group
Total Households

M5 Tables

Population by Age
Total Pop
Household by Age Group
Total Households

M6 Tables

Population by Age
Total Pop
Household by Age Group
Total Households